Overview
The regional dynamics across Sudan, West Africa, and the Horn of Africa are rapidly evolving. Recent developments reveal that forces in Sudan are reconfiguring supply routes along a critical tri-border area, jihadist groups in the Gulf of Guinea are establishing new operational bases near Nigeria’s borders, and extremist groups in the Sahel are targeting foreign economic interests. Meanwhile, conflicts in Mali continue to expose weaknesses in external interventions, and Somali forces are mounting counteroffensives to blunt al Shabaab’s advances near Mogadishu.
Sudan
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have recently seized strategic territory along the border that connects Sudan with Egypt, Libya, and a disputed tri-border region. By capturing key areas – including a small village roughly 32 miles east of the Libya–Sudan boundary – the RSF appears to be consolidating a vital logistical corridor, one that facilitates the smuggling of fuel, ammunition, and vehicles from across the border.
Beyond strengthening traditional supply lines from Libya, the RSF seems intent on expanding southward toward positions held by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), potentially threatening established smuggling routes in North Darfur. However, the RSF’s ability to defend a lengthy, 400-mile supply passage is uncertain, given the harsh desert environment and inherent vulnerabilities of such an extended corridor.
Recent developments also hint at an increasing role for external backers in the conflict. The Libyan National Army (LNA) may have provided vital logistical support to the RSF, marking one of the first overt instances of direct LNA involvement in Sudan. This involvement, combined with growing Emirati support, risks deepening the regionalization of the conflict. Heightened tensions with key partners and escalating air and drone strikes on strategic locations further underscore the fragile balance along Sudan’s borders.
Gulf of Guinea
In the Gulf of Guinea, Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) appears to have set up rear support cells in northwestern Nigeria to enable operations across the border into Benin. An assault near the town of Basso – located only a few miles from the Nigerian frontier – indicates that militant groups are now extending their reach further south than previously observed.
The militants are believed to have operated from within the Kainji reserve, an area where multiple jihadist factions have maintained a fluid and overlapping presence. This convergence of Salafi-jihadi groups, local bandits, and other extremist cells underscores the potential for collaborative efforts to undermine regional security. As these networks become increasingly interconnected, the risk of more widespread insurgent attacks in Nigeria grows.
Sahel
In the Sahel, JNIM has intensified its campaign against foreign enterprises, particularly focusing on mining operations in Mali. Over the past month, the group has orchestrated several attacks targeting sites operated by companies of various nationalities, and has even kidnapped staff members from these operations. This campaign not only aims to force businesses into paying “taxes” or ransoms but also seeks to erode the political legitimacy of the Malian government by undermining confidence in its ability to protect economic interests.
Compounding this challenge, pro-sovereignty actions by emerging juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso have led to the takeover of key mining assets. These moves are part of a broader state effort to gain greater control over natural resources, a strategy that inadvertently opens the door for alternative players, notably Russian mining firms, to increase their influence in the region.
Mali
Recent clashes in Mali have exposed deep vulnerabilities in external intervention strategies. Tuareg rebels from the Front de libération de l’Azawad (FLA) recently ambushed a convoy near Aguelhok in northern Mali’s Kidal region, inflicting heavy casualties and destroying a significant number of vehicles. The rebels followed up this success by downing an Africa Corps Su-24 jet that had been mobilized in response.
These dramatic setbacks for Russia-backed forces come on the heels of the high-profile withdrawal of the Wagner Group from Mali. Moreover, ongoing government negotiations with JNIM in central Mali have allowed the jihadist organization to consolidate its influence, even as Russian-led operations have failed to decisively curb its expansion. The evolving conflict dynamics in Mali are now beginning to impact security beyond its borders, notably in Burkina Faso, where insurgent activity has seen an uptick.
Somalia
In Somalia, national security forces – bolstered by Ugandan troops and other African Union partners – have launched an offensive targeting key towns in the Lower Shabelle region. These towns, crucial for maintaining access to Mogadishu, had been previously captured by al Shabaab in a bid to threaten the capital with vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices and other tactics.
The counteroffensive focuses on reclaiming lost forward operating bases and securing critical bridges over the Shabelle River, which are integral to safeguarding routes into Mogadishu. Despite these coordinated efforts, al Shabaab has mounted a robust defense, destroying infrastructure and fortifying positions with trench systems. The group’s ability to disrupt government advances and continue its asymmetric operations poses a serious ongoing challenge for Somali security forces.
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